What’s happening?
An interesting approach on planetary health and human wellbeing has been developed for strategic foresight and horizon scanning.
Why this is important?
We are living in a world of polycrisis (several global crises - such as wars, extreme weather, inflation, pandemics and hunger - that become causally entangled) and which hence need to be understood as a whole. It is not about predicting the future (a passive attitude, which could easily lead to anxiety) but rather to foresee the future and hence be able to proactively look at how to change it and anticipate shocks and disruptions that the world should prepare for. Generating insights can shift the momentum from the current situation of brink of polycrisis to polystability. The good news is that just as the impact of multiple crises is compounded when they are linked, so are the solutions.
What's in it for you?
The approach enables to identify:
- 8 prevailing critical shifts which define our world, today and in the quarter century to come
- 18 signals of change and potential disruptions, including certain that may be unconsidered or underestimated
- convergence and interaction between seemingly distinct issues
- opportunities to achieve planetary health and human wellbeing.
In particular:
- with respect to the critical shift of “humans and the environment”, the following signals of changes have been identified: (1) ancient microbes hidden in thawing Arctic permafrost, (2) new emerging zoonotic disease; (3) antimicrobial resistance approaching critical levels; (4) unforeseen impacts of harmful chemicals and materials.
- AI, digital transformation and technology is a prevailing critical shifts which will profoundly impact planetary health, environmental sustainability, prosperity and human agency.
- With respect to space, whilst the approach supports Earth Observation and remote sensing as ways to monitor and understand environmental change and to implement the environment-related SDGs, it considers that the “rapid expansion of space activity” is a “signal of change” that “may have unintended consequences for the stratosphere and other environmental issues”.
Next steps
The approach for planetary health and human wellbeing will likely be part of the discussions during the UN Summit of the Future in New York (September 22-23, 2024) and may help to reevaluate and develop a more intentional and systematic approach across the United Nations (UN) system, as well as informing international responses to complex global disruptions and shocks.