EUROPEAN DEFENCE – READINESS 2030

 

WHAT’S HAPPENING? 

In March 2025, the European Commission and the High Representative presented a White Paper for European Defence – Readiness 2030.

WHY THIS IS IMPORTANT? 

A stronger and more capable European Union in the field of security and defence could contribute positively to security and complement NATO. Also, the strategic context is deteriorating. For instance, wars and threats to European security are proliferating and a wide range of different types of security threats are increasingly inter-connected and increasing in prevalence.

Whilst Member States will always retain responsibility for the definition of their military needs and their own troops, the EU considers that it can add value in essence by: 

  •  Facilitating defence-related investments
  • Supporting technologies like AI and quantum that are key for military pre-eminence (via a European Armament Technological Roadmap by 2025)
  • Reducing red tape
  • Acting as a facilitator in terms of defence preparedness, readiness, synergies, collaboration, partnerships, purchasing power…
  • Taking (partial) responsibility for supporting dual-use infrastructure for mobility, and space-based communications, navigation and observation.

WHAT'S IN IT FOR YOU? 

In terms of defense-related priorities and programs:

The Whiter Paper sets out seven gap areas which are critical to build a robust European defence and for which Member States could pool their efforts to address these gaps, including through a set of Defence Projects of Common Interest: 

  • Air and missile defence.
  • Artillery systems.
  • Ammunition and missiles.
  • Drones and counter-drone systems.
  • Military mobility.
  • AI, quantum, cyber & electronic warfare.
  • Strategic enablers and critical infrastructure protection.

Also, the co-legislators are invited to adopt the European Defence Industry Programme (EDIP) before Summer, including its Ukraine Support Instrument (USI). 

In terms of defence spending:

The White Paper:

  • Provide Member States with loans backed by the EU budget (up to €150 billion) via the proposed Security and Action for Europe (SAFE) instrument.
  • Allow additional defence spending by Member States of up to 1.5% of GDP for a period of four years (extendable) through the coordinated activation of the National Escape Clause by all Member States, to unlock additional fiscal flexibility for defence expenditure, by the end of April 2025.
  • Make EU funding instruments more flexible to allow greater defence investment, for example:
  • Ensuring the European Innovation Council and the upcoming TechEU Scale-up Fund invest in dual-use technologies.
  • Reallocating funds from current cohesion policy programs.
  • Doubling the European Investment Bank’s annual defence-related funding to €2 billion, including for space.
  • Adjusting the priorities of the European Regional Development Fund.
  • Enabling the European Defence Agency (EDA) to offer innovation support services similar to those under the European Defence Fund via the EU Defence Innovation Scheme (EUDIS).
  • Channel additional private defence-related investment and increase capital access for defence SMEs and mid-caps, including via guarantee instruments to de-risk investments.
  • Fund Ukrainian access to services provided by EU-based commercial providers, including start-ups and scale-ups, in support of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, upon request.

In terms of space:

In terms of targeted policies: 

The European Commission (EC) intends to support the European defence industry through various policy approaches, such as:

  • Identifying regulatory barriers to defence industry projects (e.g., construction and environmental permits), including via a Defence Omnibus Simplification proposal by June 2025.
  • Aggregating demand to scale up industrial production capacity.
  • Reducing strategic dependencies and ensuring security of supply.
  • Attracting, retaining, and developing talent, skills, and expertise in the defence sector.

NEXT STEPS

Following the White Paper, the European Council has called in March 2025 for accelerated progress across all fronts to strengthen Europe’s defence readiness over the next five years. It invited the Council and the co-legislators to urgently advance work on the EC’s recent proposals, while refraining from taking a position on their substance. There was support for a coordinated activation of National Escape Clauses, though further discussions on defence financing are expected at the next EU finance ministers' meeting in April 2025.

NOTE 

The White Paper is largely inspired by the Latin adage “Si vis pacem, para bellum” — “If you want peace, prepare for war” — and the notion that building sufficient deterrent capacity is necessary to prevent a potential war of aggression.

Clearly, there are historical examples where this adage proved accurate, such as during the Cold War (1947–1991). But there are also notable counterexamples — arguably at the outbreak of the First World War (1914–1918) and, further back, during the Peloponnesian Wars between Athens and Sparta (460–404 BCE).

It is worth noting that Thucydides wrote at the beginning of his account of the Peloponnesian Wars — during which both sides lost roughly one-third of their total population — “It was the rise of Athenian power and the fear that this caused in Sparta that made war inevitable.” In other words, in Thucydides’ view, Athens’ military buildup did not prevent war — it triggered it.